Seattle Sun Newspaper - Vol. 8, Issue 2, February 2004

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Noted NW economy watcher to give talk, Feb. 12

By CLAYTON PARK

To paraphrase the old television commercial, when Wedgwood resident Michael J. Parks speaks, people particularly business leaders listen.

They also subscribe to his newsletter: Marple's Pacific Northwest Letter.

Published every other Wednesday, the newsletter offers the keen, concisely written, pull-no-punches observations of editor/publisher Parks and associate editor Kevin Goodrich regarding the regional economy and the Northwest's leading companies.

On Thursday, Feb. 12, Parks will share his economic outlook for 2004 at a free, open-to-the-public talk sponsored by Frontier Bank at the Everett Golf & Country Club at 1500 52nd St. in Everett, from 7:30-9:30 a.m.

Parks, who recently gave the Seattle Sun a sneak preview of his talk, believes that the regional economy will gradually improve throughout the year, with employment growth starting to pick up in the late spring and summer as layoffs by The Boeing Co. taper down, after having cut well over 30,000 jobs, with the vast majority in the Puget Sound region, since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

The technology sector, which also has been hard hit in recent years, is also showing signs of rebounding, he said. Businesses are starting to spend money again on equipment and software after holding off on capital improvements the past few years.

"Consumers have been carrying the ball," said Parks, in terms of keeping the economy from falling into a deeper recession. "The ball is about to be passed on to businesses."

The weak U.S. dollar "also signals better times for the Pacific Northwest," wrote Parks in a recent edition of his newsletter, because it makes American goods more affordable in overseas markets.

Parks also predicts the home sales market, which was red hot last year thanks to low interest rates, will continue to do well throughout at least most of this year albeit not quite at 2003's record pace. "I think the Federal Reserve is going to want to avoid rattling the cage (by raising interest rates) until after the November elections," he said, although he doesn't rule out the possibility of a slight bump in rates between now and then. "I'm inclined to think if the Fed is going to do anything, it'll be in the spring. There may be an inclination to raise interest rates to slow the decline of the dollar."

Still, that's not to say that the economic outlook is worry-free. Parks points out that there are still "lots of things to worry about" particularly the United States' trade and budget deficits. He also notes that Washington state's manufacturing sector, which has lost more than 100,000 jobs since 1998, won't be regaining many of those jobs. The reason: an increase in the number of local companies choosing to outsource factory work to China.

Parks is a Spokane native who moved to Seattle to attend Seattle University on a journalism scholarship. After graduating from college, he worked briefly as a copyeditor at the Seattle Post-Intelligencer before getting hired away by the Seattle Times, where he eventually became a reporter who covered the civil rights movement in the 1960s ("back when the Black Panthers were around") and later city hall. In the early 1970s, he switched to covering business, and was soon promoted to the position of financial editor.

In 1977, Parks left the Times to assist Marple's Business Newsletter publisher Elliott Marple, who founded the publication in 1949. Parks bought the business in 1980 from Marple, who retired.

When asked how he and Goodrich, who joined the staff in 1987, manage to write so concisely the newsletter is only four pages, but is packed with useful and insightful information Parks answers by quoting a reader who once wrote Marple: "That read so well, I know there's blood on the typewriter keys."

Parks adds: "We sit down and put it through the meat grinder. We constantly polish and rewrite. We respect our readers' time."

Parks and his wife, Janet, have been Wedgwood residents since 1970. They have three adult children. "We were active for many years at Our Lady of the Lake Church," he recalls, adding that he served for a time there as a Eucharistic minister. Parks and his wife now attend St. Joseph's Church on Capitol Hill.