Seattle Sun Newspaper - Vol. 7, Issue 9, September 2003

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POLITICALLY SPEAKING

Rumors of the City Council's demise are premature

By JAMES BUSH

You'd think we don't love our Seattle City Council any more.

As the Sept. 16 primary fast approaches, the council's group approval rate has dipped south of 30 percent. The list of reasons for this precipitous decline is both concrete (a 58 percent increase in electricity rates; a campaign donation scandal) and symbolic (dumb legislative causes, a lousy economy).

With four of five incumbents facing actual competition at the polls, it almost seems like time to throw the rascals out.

Yeah, right.

First-termer Judy Nicastro is a legitimately threatened incumbent and deservedly so. Having shown more guts than brains last year in picking fights with unions and low-income housing developers, she put her spine in storage this year, enraging neighborhood activist types with her shameful cave-in on the University of Washington Master Plan.

She also managed to elbow her way to the forefront of the city's first election-eve scandal in a decade: a media firestorm over campaign donations from persons associated with a Lake City Way strip club seeking a council rezone to expand its parking lot.

That story, first reported in this column ("Council members stripped of credibility in Rick's rezone," Seattle Sun, June 2003), became the tale that wouldn't go away, even after council incumbents Nicastro, Jim Compton and Heidi Wills gave the money back. The council then took back the rezone after revelations of improper lobbying came to light. Rick's strip club on Lake City Way remains eight parking spaces short of perfection.

As a result, Nicastro finds herself on a crowded primary ballot with Jean Godden, Kollin Min, Robert Rosencrantz, Art Skolnik, Darryl Smith, and a member of the Socialist Workers Party. While we can't speak for the Commie, everyone else on the list is at least as qualified to serve as was Nicastro when the young housing activist was elected to her council seat in 1999.

Not only does Nicastro have a 50-50 chance of getting bounced come November, she even has a chance at being the first Seattle incumbent in memory to fall in the primary. Look for former Seattle Times columnist and late entry Godden to advance based on superior name recognition; environmental lawyer Min also has a decent shot at making the final.

Wills' walk to the dais to cast her mysterious committee vote in favor of the Rick's rezone still haunts her campaign, but the first-term incumbent undoubtedly dodged a bullet when Godden decided to pick on the weaker Nicastro. Prime challenger David Della could give Wills a run for her money, provided he can get his name out and keeps harping on Wills' role in the City Light disaster and the Rick's scandal. But he's still a fairly obscure figure compared to fundraising champ Wills, and she will spend, spend, spend to keep her high-profile job.

Margaret Pageler has the longest tenure on the City Council, at 12 years, and the distinction of being the only incumbent looking for work during her last term (she was a finalist for the top job at the Greater Seattle Chamber of Commerce). She's also got real competition in Tom Rasmussen, a former council aide and director of the mayor's office for senior citizens, and Monorail initiative creator Dick Falkenbury. Her two opponents will likely split the "Anybody but Margaret vote," giving Pageler a sizable lead heading into the finals (probably against Rasmussen).

Former TV commentator Compton's potential challengers obviously remember the whipping he laid on a pair of well-qualified 1999 opponents. He's not losing sleep over his trio of earnest, but overmatched primary challengers, which includes energetic progressive Angel Bolanos, his likely final election opponent.

Only Council President Peter Steinbrueck is functionally unopposed, due to the surprise withdrawal of closest challenger Rudi Bertschi. Rumors that the downtown business establishment was gunning for Steinbrueck proved overblown, at least as far the willingness of high-rise capitalists to write checks to the Bertschi campaign. His stage-right exit should allow fellow challenger Zander Batchelder, a Belltown activist, to absorb the embarrassing defeat Bertschi saw coming.

Conventional political wisdom states that an incumbent in a crowded (four or five candidate) primary race who can pull between 46 percent and 52 percent of the vote has pretty good job security. Count on Compton (52 percent) and Wills (48 percent) to hit the mark and Pageler (42 percent) to come close. Nicastro (26 percent) must finish first in her primary race or start updating that resume.

As for Steinbrueck, we'll give him 74 percent of the vote in the November final. Blame that anti-incumbent spirit for keeping him under 80 percent.